Demographic portrait of the planet at the end of the 21st century. How many of us will there be? "Old" new world
Regional research competition
“My homeland is Syktyvdin”
Demographic profile of the school
10th grade student
MBOU "Zelenetskaya secondary school"
Syktyvdinsky district
Komi Republic
Supervisor:
Budina Diya Vasilvna
geography teacher
Zelenets 2012
Content:
Introduction………………………………………………………………………………3
National composition……………………………………………………7
Place of birth of students …………………………………………8
Number of children in students’ families……………………………………..8
Scope of activity of parents of students……………………………..9
Professional preferences of students……………………………...9
Hobbies of students………………………………………………………10
Participation in extracurricular activities……………………………………………………………10
Sources of population data…………………………………………4
Dynamics of the number of students at MBOU “Zelenetskaya Secondary School”…………………..4
Gender composition of school students……………………………………………..5
Age composition of school students……………..…………………….…………6
Results of student survey………….…..……………………………7
Dynamics of potential first-graders……………………………………………………10
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………..11
Literature………………………………………………………………………………12
Introduction.
This work is of a research nature and is devoted to identifying the characteristics of the demographic situation of the Zelenets secondary school.
The material was collected from September to December 2011 in the form of a study of documents from the rural settlement “Zelenets” and the Municipal Budgetary Educational Institution “Zelenetskaya Secondary School”, material on the demographic situation of Russia, the Komi Republic, as well as a student survey.
Purpose of the study: drawing up a demographic portrait of our school, as well as attracting students’ attention to demographic problems in Russia and the Komi Republic using the example of the school demographic situation.
Tasks:
Study the age, national, and gender composition of students;
Compile questionnaires to analyze the demographic situation in our school;
Conduct a survey of school students;
Carry out statistical processing of the collected material;
To attract the attention of students to the study of their ancestry;
To identify the attitude of adolescents towards family planning;
Introduce this work to school students.
Relevance of the topic: Currently, in Russia and the Komi Republic there is a very difficult demographic situation, which is leading to a decrease in the population; this problem has affected our village and school. The number of students at the school, the number of classes, and the number of complete classes have decreased.
Object of study: school students.
Subject of study: dynamics of the number of students, composition of students. .
Methods:
Analysis of literary sources.
Conducting a survey.
Processing survey data.
Compilation and analysis of tables and diagrams.
1. Sources of population data
In Ancient Rus', state censuses began to be carried out in the 2nd half of the 13th century on the initiative of the Mongols in order to count the population to determine the amount of tribute. After the formation of a centralized state, in some places so-called “scribal books” were established, which contained information about the population, descriptions of cities, villages, estates, and churches. The object of taxation was initially land plots productively used on the farm - plows. In the 17th century, the unit of taxation became the yard, and the main form of accounting was household censuses. In addition to household censuses, national censuses were also carried out in certain territories. The decree of Peter I of November 26, 1718 laid the foundation for state audits, of which 10 were carried out from 1719 to 1858.
The first general population census of Russia was carried out on February 9, 1897. In Soviet times, censuses were carried out as of August 28, 1920, as of March 15, 1923, and general censuses were carried out as of December 17, 1926, as of January 6, 1937, as of January 17, 1939, as of January 15, 1959, on January 15, 1970, on January 17, 1979 and on January 12, 1989. After the collapse of the USSR, the next Russian census, scheduled for 1999, was postponed due to financial instability after the 1998 crisis. It was carried out only on October 9, 2002. The next Russian population census was carried out in October 2010.
In October 2010, there were 356 students studying at our school, in October 2012 - 370 students.
To compile a demographic portrait, a survey was conducted in which 70 students from grades 8 to 11 took part; we also analyzed the school’s annual statistical reports and studied the archival material “Summary Statement of Student Achievement by Year” from 1985 to 2012. Using these materials, we carried out this work to study the demographic situation in the Zelenetsk Secondary School.
Dynamics of the number of students at MBOU "Zelenetskaya Secondary School"
In 2012, the school had 370 students, but an analysis of archival documents and statistical reports allows us to conclude that the number of students varied greatly between 1985 and 2012.
Starting from the 1984-85 academic year, the number of students increased by 305 people by the 1994-1995 academic year and amounted to 785 people and 36 classes - sets, the average class size was 29 people. The reason for this increase in the number of students was that the Zelenets poultry farm opened in 1984, and mainly young people moved to Zelenets for permanent residence, which affected the sharp increase in birth rates. The school building, which was put into operation in 1976, did not accommodate such a number of children, the educational process took place in two shifts, the old school building, which was located in the lower part of the village, as well as the dance hall of the cultural center were used to organize training. The administration of the school and the village council, together with parents, have repeatedly petitioned government authorities to build a new school. Construction of the new school began in 1990, and on September 1, 1992, the new school with 1,120 places opened its doors to its students.
Since the 1995-96 academic year, the number of students has gradually decreased and by the 2005-06 academic year it has decreased by more than 2 times compared to 1985 and amounted to 350 people. The decrease in the number of students is primarily due to a decrease in the birth rate in the 90s, as well as migration processes. In the 90s, people began to leave Zelenets due to lack of work, the most important enterprises in the settlement were in a difficult economic situation, and jobs were being cut. Also during this period, several families left for Germany. Among them were teaching schools.
In recent years, the number of students has gradually begun to increase (2009-2010, 2011-2012). Since the 2009-10 academic year, in connection with the reorganization of the Sludsk and Mandachskaya secondary schools into general schools, children from these settlements are studying in our school in grades 10-11, and in 2012, with the closure of the Mandachskaya secondary school, students of the primary school are also studying in our school. In the coming years, an increase in the number of students is predicted due to the commissioning of a new residential building in the village. Zelenets.
Table 1.
Number of students in Zelenetsk secondary school
Academic years
Number of students
Number of classes-sets
1984-1985
480
1989-1990
691
1994-1995
785
36
1995-1996
726
1999-2000
552
2004-2005
362
2005-2006
350
2009-2010
362
2010-2011
356
2011-2012
364
2012-2013
370
3. Gender composition of school students
We also analyzed the ratio of girls and boys among school students over the past 8 years and saw that in all these years there has been an excess of girls over boys in school, which generally reflects the gender structure of the population of Russia, the Komi Republic and the Syktyvda region. The largest preponderance of girls over boys is at the senior level of education: in the 10th grade there are 12 girls and 3 boys (80%: 20%), in the 11th grade there are 13 girls (100%).
table 2
Ratio of girls to boys
Academic year
Girls
Boys
2004-2005
182
180
2005-2006
180
170
2006-2007
192
158
2007-2008
189
168
2008-2009
186
172
2009-2010
195
167
2010-2011
185
171
2011-2012
190
174
2012-2013
193
177
4. Age composition of school students
According to the school's report as of September 1, 2012 on the age composition of the student population, it can be seen that most students were born in 2003 and 2004.
Table 3.
Age composition of students
Year of birth
Quantity
Quantity in %
1993
0,8
1994
3.7
1995
3,7
1996
5,4
1997
5,1
1998
9,7
1999
9,4
2000
10,2
2001
9,9
2002
10,7
2003
43
11,6
2004
43
11,6
2005
11,3
2006
0.8
Total
370
100
Number of students by education level:
1st level – 174 people, 2nd level – 168 people, 3rd level – 28 people.
Survey results
5.1. National composition
We do not determine the national composition of all school students, but only of respondents, since this information is not available in official sources. According to the results of the analysis of respondents by nationality, Russians predominate at the school - 57%.
Table 4
National composition of respondents
Nationality
Number of respondents
Quantity %
Russians
Komi
28,5
Chuvash
Ukrainians
Azerbaijanis
Belarusian
Some children find it difficult to determine their belonging to a particular nationality, since their parents have different nationalities.
5.2 Place of birth of school students
From the diagram we see that the majority of school students were born in the village of Zelenets and the village of Parcheg, others were born in Syktyvkar and other localities of the Republic of Kazakhstan, only three respondents came from outside the republic. Thus, the bulk of students have local roots.
5.3 Number of children in students’ families
Table 5
Number of children in the family
8th grade
9th grade
Grade 10
Grade 11
Total
One
Two
Three
Four
Six or more
Mostly, there are one or two children in families of students, they account for 24.2% and 57.1%, respectively. Large families of the respondents (three or more children) account for only 18.7%.
At the same time, children from large families, of which there are 24 in the settlement, are currently studying at our school.
Table 6
Number of large families and children in such families
years
number of large families
number of children in large families
at 1.01. 2006.
no data
at 1.01. 2007
at 1.01. 2008
at 1.01. 2009
at 1.01. 2010
at 1.01. 2011
The largest families: Klimenko (parents and 8 children), the Kolegov family (parents and 7 children), the remaining large families have 3 children each.
To the question “How many children did the students want to have?” the answers were as follows: 1-2 children -51 students, 2-3 -8, 3 or more - 2, don’t know -6, don’t want - 3.
5.4 Scope of activity of parents of students
Service area – 20 parents;
SLPK – 18 parents;
JSC "Zelenetsk Poultry Farm" - 16 parents;
Education – 15 parents;
Housewives – 3 parents;
Pensioners – 4 parents;
They also work in medicine, housing and communal services, social sphere and management.
It is typical for our settlement that most of the parents of students have a permanent place of work: these are service institutions in the Ezhvinsky district and the city of Syktyvkar, as well as the largest enterprises near the settlement - SYLPK and the Zelenetsk poultry farm. The most common professions of parents are salesmen, drivers, employees of agricultural enterprises and agricultural enterprises. The unemployment rate among parents of students is low, this is explained by the favorable geographical location of the village and developed infrastructure.
5.5 Professional preferences of students of the Municipal Budgetary Educational Institution “Zelenetsk Secondary School”
One of the questions in the survey was “What profession would you like to get?” It turned out that the guys want to master various professions.
Table 7
Professions
Number of students
medicine
hairdresser
programmer
civil engineer
police
economist
teacher
athlete
tax service
auto mechanic
veterinarian, investigator, electrician
1 person each
journalist, musician, artist, mechanic
1 person each
undecided
The school carries out a lot of career guidance work; students navigate the world of professions. School students are thinking about their future.
Estimated level of education: higher – 60% (6 students plan to receive at least 2 higher educations), secondary vocational – 40%. Students understand that in modern conditions the country needs educated, highly qualified personnel.
Hobbies of students
In their free time from studying, students engage in various additional activities according to their interests: sports, creativity, the Internet. For activities outside of school hours, a cultural center, a children's youth center, a music school, a library, a ski lodge, as well as additional education institutions of the Ezhvinsky district offer their services.
Among the respondents, hobbies were distributed as follows: sports - 19 people, music school - 3 people, vocals - 2 people, Lingua - 2 people, drawing - 2 people, clubs - 3 people, reading - 3 people, various hobbies - 12 people, walking -21 people, nothing -6 people. 11th grade students are engaged in self-education and preparation for the Unified State Exam.
5.7 Participation in extracurricular life of the school
54.3% of respondents constantly participate in the extracurricular life of the school, 17.1% sometimes, and 28.6% do not participate at all. Most of those who do not participate in the public life of the school are students in grades 8ab.
Dynamics of potential first-graders
How many first graders will come to school in the future?
In a geography lesson with 9th grade students, we studied the passport of a rural settlement, analyzed the data and came to a conclusion: how many students will come to first grade in the next 5 years.
Table 9
Potential first graders
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
The number of children aged 0 to 6 years is 339.
We see that the government reform with maternity capital had a noticeable impact on the birth rate in the settlement, people now have faith in the future.
Conclusion.
The deep socio-economic crisis of the 90s affected the number of students in our school.
The demographic portrait of our school reflects the general demographic situation in the Republic of Kazakhstan and Russia as a whole.
In our school, the female team predominates over the male team. This trend can also be seen in Russia and the republic.
The national composition of the population is diverse, but Russians predominate.
In the next 5 years, the number of students at the school will not change much
According to the results of our research, in about 10-12 years the number of students will increase again when the generation of 15-year-olds grows up. By this time, today's teenagers will have entered childbearing age.
Literature
Internet sources (ru .wikipedia .org /wiki /).
Passport of the rural settlement "Zelenets".
Preliminary results of the population census in the Komi Republic
Alphabet book of MBOU "Zelenetsk Secondary School".
Archival documents of the Municipal Budgetary Educational Institution "Zelenetskaya Secondary School".
Statistical reports of MBOU "Zelenetskaya secondary school".
Lesson summary on the topic:“Demographic portrait of the Earth in the 21st century”
Main didactic goal:
Summarize and systematize knowledge of the basic concepts and processes characterizing the world population.
Lesson objectives:
1. Consolidate knowledge about population dynamics, location features, level of urbanization, directions of main migration flows.
2. To promote the development of skills in applying basic demographic indicators to characterize the Earth's population as a whole, individual regions and countries; analyze tables, diagrams.
3. Create conditions for developing the ability to use scientific knowledge to make informed decisions; manifestations of humane relations in the group.
Lesson type: generalization and systematization of knowledge
Method: partial-search
Form of organization:small group work
Equipment:
1. Political map of the world
2. Statistical reference books and materials
3. Atlases
4. Handouts
Consolidation and systematization of knowledge | Organizes the work of small groups and experts. 1. Questionnaire-envelope No. 1 2. Leads to completion 3. Leads to execution 4. Summarizes | Experts announce the group evaluation system. Groups: 1. respond in writing to 2. perform tasks according to 3. Discuss in groups and |
During the classes
Org moment.
Goal setting and motivation.
Today we have to find out what the world's population will be like in the near foreseeable future. In this regard, try to formulate the goals of this lesson.
3. Consolidation and systematization of knowledge.
Let's start with the basic concepts of the topic. We present to you a short written questionnaire. Complete the tasks - envelope No. 1 and submit it to the experts for verification.
Review the following concepts orally:
Natural increase
"population explosion"
depopulation
migration - demographic policy
3)And now we have to find out: Is the planet in danger of overpopulation?
To do this, read the tasks of instruction card No. 1 - envelope No. 2
Instruction card No. 1
Using data from statistical reference books, determine the number
Each group gets its own region: Europe, Asia, North America, Africa, South America, Australia and Oceania.
Compare these data and determine: Which region will lead in population?
Which one will be the smallest?
Explain this data. These data reflect the picture of the demographic situation in the regions as a whole. What will it look like for individual countries? Complete the tasks of instruction card No. 2-envelope No. 3.
Instructional card No. 2Using data from statistical reference books, determine the number
population in 2025. Enter them into the table.
Each group has its own country: Indonesia, China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, USA.
Compare and explain these data. Answer the questions: What type of reproduction
Is it typical for this country? What are its main characteristics?
It is clear that with an increase in population, the load per unit area increases. To determine how much it will change, complete the task of instruction card No. 3 - envelope No. 4.
Instructional card No. 3Determine the average population density of the world. Determine the population density in your region in 2025. Answer the question: How can you reduce the load (horizontal) per unit area? What process will this involve?
Let's repeat the concepts: -urbanization
agglomeration
megalopolis
Instruction card No. 4
Calculate how the population of the largest urban agglomerations will change
your country. What to do with those who will remain to live in the village? Apparently it is necessary to expand the development area. How much? Based on the data on the average density of your country, calculate by how much it should increase the area of developed land? Where can we get these lands if we are already talking about the fact that everything that could be developed has already been developed?
Homework: Suggest your options for solving this problem, based on the characteristics of your region. Your task: to settle, feed and provide jobs for the population of your region. Projects can be the most fantastic.
But let's return to our original question: Is the planet facing overpopulation? How will you answer it given the facts you have obtained?
Summarizing.
In almost every publication on the topic of overpopulation, the "population explosion" and population policy, you can read that the population is beginning to stabilize, so that overpopulation is no longer a problem. Imagine that we are sitting on a train that must cross a deep gorge on a bridge, and then the bridge begins to collapse as soon as we approach it. It crackles at first, but the sound doesn't bother anyone on the train much. Then, when the collapse begins, nothing can be done. Let's see whether demographic optimism is justified and how the population will develop in the 21st century.
All demographers predict population growth for the near future, albeit slowing. In addition, significant inertia will increase the population after reaching the “optimal” level of fertility. The mistake is also that the tendency of population fluctuations can never be reduced to stability. The population is always either growing or declining - this can also be observed in natural populations of various animals. Most likely, in the future we would face a fall - if trends continue. The forecasting error in this case is not that demographers do not take something into account; the extrapolation method itself fails. So, the same Arab-Ogly talks about the population of the USSR in 2000. But ten years later, ten years from the moment the forecast was announced, the state of the USSR disappeared from the maps. On the scale of planetary demographic forecasts, this is a trifle, but a similar situation could arise with the world as a whole; the forecasts would turn out to be too biased. The planet cannot support tens of billions of people even for a hundred years. And there is no mysticism here, I am not reviving the planet - the ecological balance will simply be disrupted, the ecological catastrophe will enter its final phase. In the worst case, all life on earth may disappear (as a result of the thinning of the ozone layer and increased cosmic radiation, for example).
Overpopulation is not in the future; it has already arrived. Tropical rain forests have been almost cut down, rivers and, in many respects, seas have been poisoned. Whether or not the destruction process will be reversed now, no one knows. We don't have a hundred years. And what awaits us within a hundred years is not population reduction, but stabilization of growth. We should not forget about the constant reduction in the stock of arable and generally fertile land. After the erosion process, empty land remains, on which even weeds do not grow. The “limits to growth” were already reached several decades ago. We've crossed the line. And so, instead of focusing on a rapid reduction in numbers (one child per family), large families are encouraged in developed countries, including Russia. The only chance to save nature is to reduce the population by at least three times over a hundred years, plus global deindustrialization. But no one will do this, and therefore a disaster is inevitable. In addition to overall growth, the city's population density will increase and urbanization will generally intensify. Per capita consumption will increase and waste will increase. The increase in pressure on the land will outpace the decline in population. Humanity has no time to think, and it is not going to think. The demographic picture in connection with other factors makes it possible to confidently predict resource depletion and environmental disaster by the end of the 21st century, and possibly earlier.
Today there are 7 billion people on Earth, 80% of whom live in developing countries, and developed countries in Europe and America are experiencing population decline. All these examples show possible global security problems for humanity as a species in the 21st century.
The first problem is the problem of North and South. Its essence is that in the Northern Hemisphere there are developed countries with high incomes; they are opposed by the poor South, whose population is 37 times poorer than the population of the Northern Hemisphere.
The North represents a number of developed European countries (Germany, France, Great Britain),
North America (Canada, USA) and several countries of the Pacific zone (Japan, Australia). According to UN estimates, at the beginning of the 21st century, the total wealth of the world's 225 richest people was about 1 trillion. dollars, which is equal to the annual income of 2.5 billion poor people from around the world, who make up 47% of the world's population. The population of Western countries have a high income because they have a good education and social support from the state, which allows them to receive a high income. The Western economy developed for many centuries due to the influx of resources from the colonies. Western countries account for 86% of world GDP, less developed countries account for 13% and the poorest 1%. The combination of all these factors gives the countries of the Northern Hemisphere the opportunity to form the backbone of the economy of the whole world and dictate their will to the weaker states of the world.
The South is a collection of African and Middle Eastern states that form a belt of poverty. Countries such as Congo, Somalia, Afghanistan and Egypt are characterized by low incomes, illiteracy, corrupt government and an inefficient and underdeveloped economy. Most of the countries of the poor South are former European colonies in Africa and Asia. These countries were conquered in the 16th-19th centuries and throughout this time they supplied their resources to the metropolis and themselves did not have any production in the country. It is also worth considering that no one was interested in the education and rights of the inhabitants of the colonies, and therefore, after gaining independence in the 20th century, many of these countries became zones of regional conflicts. All this led to the above problems of the South.
Already today one can notice a massive flow of immigrants from the South to the Nordic countries. Thousands of immigrants come to the United States from Mexico every year, their number is increasing and, according to forecasts, by 2050, 65% of the US population will speak Spanish. France, England and Germany are home to many immigrants from former colonies. Their number is increasing so quickly that it has already led to conflicts in these countries of an interracial nature. A similar problem exists in Russia, where today approximately 10 million immigrants and government workers from Central Asia and the Caucasus live. Racial conflicts have become commonplace in our country.
After everything that has been written on this problem, we can say about the explosive nature of this problem. Ignoring this problem can cause social explosions in developed countries and social crises in poor countries of the South. All this can lead to a series of regional and maybe global conflicts.
The next global problem of the 21st century is the problem of population aging in developed countries. The result of my study of this problem is 4 conclusions that I received while studying the report of the United Nations Commission on Population. The data I received makes me think:
- Today there is a full-scale aging of the world's population. Population aging is characterized by an increase in the percentage of old people (over 60 years old) and a decrease in the number of working-age population (from 15 to 60 years old). By 2047, the number of older people is expected to outnumber the younger population. But already today in the developed countries of the Northern Hemisphere, the elderly population makes up the majority of the population of these countries.
- Demographic aging is a common phenomenon, as the population in all countries of the planet is aging. One of the reasons for aging is a decrease in fertility and an increase in life expectancy. This combination leads to the fact that there are more old people in society and they largely influence the principles and foundations of society
- The aging population affects all aspects of society. In Economics, population aging affects employment, population savings, and economic growth. In the social sphere, changes are also taking place related to the optimization of medical and social assistance to the population.
- The aging of the population is long-term. If in 1950 the share of the old population was 8%, then in 2007 this figure increased to 11%.
These two problems disclosed here can only to a small extent show the possible problems of a global scale that may face humanity in the 21st century.
In order to show what problems and conflicts can arise in each region of the planet, let's look at a few examples
: 1) The explosive region of the planet is China, which has a population of 1.5 billion people, most of whom live on the east coast of the country. This region is already causing concern in terms of environmental pollution, which is not able to feed such a huge population. The result could be a social explosion in China, which would destroy the second economy in the world, plunge the region into a civil war for resources, and the population would suffer from hunger.
2) Let's move to the Middle East. Israel, whose population is stagnant and aging, is surrounded by a ring of Arab countries with booming populations. In the coming decades, the population of these countries may be swallowed up by Israel, or worse, the conflict between Israel and these Arab countries will cause first a regional and then a global conflict in which the entire population of the Earth will be drawn into.
3) India is a country of colors and contrasts, but few people know that most of the population of this country with a billion people lives in the Indus River valley, which is fed from the glaciers of the Himalayas. Global warming leads to the melting of these glaciers and, as a result, a decrease in the amount of water entering the Indus. In the future, the Indus may dry up, which means the river that provides water to a billion people will disappear.
Having considered all these examples, we can say that the demographic problem will become one of the most pressing global problems facing humanity in the 21st century. The solution to this problem will be the solution to many regional and world conflicts, and ignoring it will become a possible cause of the extinction of humanity or mass extinction of the population.
How many people, how long and how happily do they live in Russia? These questions become key when it is necessary to determine the country's development strategy. The authors of the study by the Center for Strategic Research analyzed the factors influencing the demographic situation in Russia. We invite you to get acquainted with the key theses of this work
Population decline
Russia is not the only country facing demographic problems. However, here they worsened due to historical events in the first half of the twentieth century. And although in the post-war period the country's population began to grow, after the collapse of the USSR it began to decline again.
In the 2000s, an attempt was made to reverse the trend, however, the success achieved was short-lived. Forecasts for the future are mostly disappointing - out of 36 scenarios worked out by experts, 32 are negative. In the graph below you can see that in the worst case, the population of Russia could decline to 125.4 million people by 2050.
Different population densities
Asia, Africa and Latin America are projected to experience population growth. At a minimum, this threatens Russia with a decrease in its place in the world demographic hierarchy - if today our country ranks among the top ten countries in terms of population, then by 2050 the situation may change dramatically.
However, a much greater danger for the country comes from the different population densities on its territory. Today Russia is the largest country in the world by area, but only 30% of its territory is considered favorable for life. The most densely populated areas are the historical core of Russia and the North Caucasus. The least populated is the eastern – Trans-Ural part of the country.
If the population in the latter continues to decline, and the demographic pressure of neighboring Asian states increases, then the situation may get out of control.
Population density of Russia. Illustration from the book “Landscape Matrix”Internal migrations
The situation of uneven settlement is aggravated by internal migrations. Over the past 25 years, internal migration in Russia has been dominated by the so-called “western drift” - a shift in the mass of the population from the east to the southwest.
Migration does not simply redistribute the population from the east to the west of the country, it contributes to the concentration of the population in already densely populated regions, and leads to a reduction in the number of inhabitants in sparsely populated ones.
Migration is mainly attended by the young population aged 17–35 years. As a result, the population of the main centers attracting migrants resists aging more successfully, and the economy receives additional workers. On the contrary, in the territories of population outflow, migration increases aging, and the economy does not receive incentives for development, because the most active people leave.
Attempts to reverse the direction of these flows in the past have not led to significant results. Currently, there are no longer either human or financial resources for large-scale resettlement processes.
In which region of Russia is it more profitable to work? Results of a large-scale study
Infrastructure destruction
Such long-term migration within Russia covers about 4 million people a year and occurs in parallel with the processes of temporary labor migration (shift work, otkhodnichestvo).
The main centers of attraction for migrants divide the territory of Russia among themselves. Migrants from the Central and Southern Districts more often go to work in the capital region, and from the Urals and Western Siberia they go to work in the Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.
In places of long-term migration decline, which continues for many decades, not only the population degrades, but also the infrastructure (primarily social and transport) is destroyed due to lack of demand, which creates incentives for further emigration of the population.
Moreover, similar processes occur not only on the eastern outskirts, but also in the old-developed regions of the center of the country, at a considerable distance from large cities.
This leads to the fact that returning to the base regions becomes futile: narrow labor market, low wages, lack of opportunities for development.
Low birth rate
What to do? Is it possible to increase the number of people through the birth rate? Unfortunately no. The birth rate in Russia today is low, and it is unrealistic to count on fundamental changes in people’s behavior. Moreover, world experience shows that this is not easy even in favorable conditions, let alone in crisis ones.
How much will it cost a modern Moscow family to raise a child today?
Low life expectancy
True, there are successful global recipes for increasing life expectancy, and many countries are focusing on them. And although it is expensive, many even not very rich countries spend a much higher proportion of their GDP on healthcare than Russia. As a result, our country demonstrates a serious lag in life expectancy. Even though the mortality rate has been rapidly decreasing over the past 10 years. This problem also has another unpleasant feature - early mortality in men.
An aging planet. RBC infographics
Crisis of social institutions
Russia's population is aging. Existing social systems and institutions focused on a different age structure are proving less and less effective. If they do not rebuild, then the old social system simply will not cope with the new demographics.
Immigration
